Monte Carlo Trade Simulator
Simulate 500 random trade sequences using your actual win rate and risk-reward ratio. See the range of outcomes your strategy can produce — from best case to ruin.
What is a Monte Carlo Simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading strategy through hundreds of random trade sequences to show the full distribution of possible outcomes. Even a profitable strategy can produce losing streaks — this tool helps you quantify that risk.
Why it matters
Back-testing shows one path. Monte Carlo shows all possible paths. A strategy with a 60% win rate and 1:2 RR is profitable on paper, but you need to understand the drawdowns you might face along the way.
How to use the results
- Risk of Ruin: If this exceeds 5%, consider reducing risk per trade.
- Worst case: Use this to set your psychological floor — can you handle this drawdown?
- Median: This is the most likely outcome of your strategy over the sample size.